4sight

Team Coco

Consider these comments in a recent New York Times article that describe a popular media personality and his new show:

“It will be a hit with advertisers initially because of the familiarity they have with ______.” – Brad Adgate, SVP for Research, Horizon Media in NYC

“We know ______ has a passionate following, and we wanted to tap into that.” – Daryl Evans, VP/Consumer Advertising & Marketing Communications, AT&T Atlanta

Here’s another quote from Evans:

“______ is a proven talent, and a proven brand.  Rubbing up the AT&T brand against the ______ brand is a good thing; there’s a nice brand equity share.”

The name that belongs in these blanks is Conan O’Brien.  Turner Entertainment ad sales is leveraging his new show on TBS.  In fact, they had deals in place with AT&T, General Motors, Microsoft, and the News Corporation – before the show even aired.

How is that possible, especially for a guy who “the press always liked…more than viewers,” according to Steve Sternberg of the Sternberg Report?

Nonetheless, to hear Linda Yaccarino, EVP and COO for Turner Entertainment tell it, getting Conan off the ground (check out the AT&T blimp) with advertisers was about “working closely with Conan’s creative team” to integrate sponsors into commercials.”

O’Brien’s team also utilized social media, generating nearly a quarter million “fans” for the show’s Facebook page, as well as more than 100,000 followers on Twitter, a strategy they are working hard:

 

This combination of strategy plus investment guarantees a successful launch for Conan, whether the show ultimately wins in the ratings or not.

And it speaks to the differences between the way that TV companies and networks approach their franchise shows and personalities and the way that radio often does it.

Consider the following...

1. Investment. Turner invested in promotional materials and collateral, well before the show debuted.  By thinking and acting big, they communicated the message to advertisers that they are committed to this show and their new personality icon.  In turn, sponsors and brands – already familiar with who Conan is and what he does – feel that if TBS believes in this show, they can, too.

2. Integration. Conan’s team is ready, willing, and able to work with sales and sponsors to handcraft commercials, campaigns, and materials that reflect his brand essence.  By working closely with advertisers, the Turner sales team reflects a confidence in Conan – to him and his team, and to these sponsors.  Plus, the show gets incidental marketing from commercial campaign integration. 

3. Social media. Conan and the Turner team had a plan to generate audience excitement for the show, something that any major personality could do.  But presence on Facebook and Twitter – with strong followings on each – is another metric for advertisers that demonstrates engagement and loyalty.  It also helps to ensure a respectable audience when the show kicked off.

4. Proactivity.  Turner didn’t wait for the first few Nielsen's “to see what happens” in the ratings.  In radio, that “wait and see” approach guarantees a slow advertising start for new shows.  By locking down advertiser commitments upfront, Turner has some breathing room to tweak the show and its marketing after it rolls out.

5. Strategy.  Offering sales trips to Cozumel in January isn’t a strategy.  It’s a tactic.  A strategy is working with individual advertisers to create win-win-win programs for Turner, brands, and viewers.  In the process, some of these advertisers are using their own sites and media to promote the show.  Diet Coke and Bing are both advertisers that are creating their own content or using their sites, while Chevy may give away a new 2011 Cruze.  By helping advertisers debut their own products in the show, Turner and Conan can share in their success.

Tailored promotions, talent integration, product placement, and an intrinsic belief in the product are all components in the Team Coco plan.  All departments at Turner are on board – programming, talent, sales, social, and marketing.

That’s media value, that’s multi-platform marketing, that’s integrated sales programs.

That’s success.

(And if the first night means anything, Conan edged out both Jay and Dave.)

Everybody Needs An Enemy

An interesting thing is happening on late night television - David Letterman actually edged past "The Tonight Show" one night last week.  While everyone is talking about Conan versus Dave, and their new head-to-head competition, it's hard not to conclude that competition can be a good thing.

Recently, Letterman has been embroiled in a battle of words with Sarah Palin.  You've no doubt heard by now about his routine on Palin's daughter, her Facebook attack on him, and his subsequent explanation of the bit.  To the question of whether he regretted telling the joke, Dave commented, "There are thousands of jokes I regret telling on this program." 

One of the best things that personalities or brands like Letterman can do - especially in a tight, competitive battle - is cultivate an enemy.  That's the formula that Howard Stern used to his advantage for years, whether it was pitting himself against management (Pig Vomit, Tom Chiusano, Joel Hollander), the government (specifically, Michael Powell and the FCC), or any number of special interest groups.  

Some years ago, one of our Summit guests was the author, Matt Ragas, whose book The Power of Cult Branding, resonated with our clients.  One of the rules for building a cult brand - drawing power from an enemy - perfectly describes what many personalities have been able to accomplish, and what Letterman is doing with Palin. 

That's not to say that blind attacks on defenseless groups or victims makes sense.  But when there's a powerful and/or polarizing celebrity or brand, there may be opportunity to draw power from it.  Sarah Palin clearly fits that description on the one hand.  Rush Limbaugh does on the other.  He is famous for calling out big powerful people, and drawing power from them.  

There are some risks involved in going after a high-profile celebrity.  But if the timing and execution are good, it has the ability to attract headlines, raise visibility, and generate buzz.

There is a fine line here, as Dave pisses off the Republican faithful, and as advertiser boycotts are threatened, you know there has to be concern inside CBS.  But I'll also bet you that Conan is pissed that he didn't think of this.

Arrested for Buying Advertising While Blind

Lately, there's been a lot of focus on Detroit, and how Ford, GM, and Chrysler will pull out of this mess.  There are a lot of factors in play, from the quality of their cars to union wages.  But for those of us who live in and around the Motor City, there's also a sense that the marketing efforts from the Detroit 3 have been uniformly abysmal.  

A case in point is the incessant  promotion of satellite radio.  Our Tech Polls - and now just about every media and technology pundit in America - continue to tell us that Sirius XM isn't the "X factor" that will sell new cars and trucks.  Yet, you continue to see satellite radio touted in commercial after commercial.

We know these ads could be much more effective if they promoted the ability to plug one's iPod into the vehicle’s sound system.  For so many consumers, that's a key selling point. 

So why should we be surprised by the results of a study from Prosper Technologies that suggests that a new media allocation model is long overdue in the automotive industry?  Surveying more than 17,000 consumers, they conclude that there's a "disproportionate allocation of spending on TV versus other media." 

Yes, the advertising mavens tend to spend about 40% of their automotive budgets on TV, and yet, which medium does the Prosper model suggest is more effective?  

RADIO.

As James Geoghegan, President of Media Head, points out, "These findings are nothing short of a complete re-think of media planning."  Well, I guess so.  And yet, radio takes a distant back seat to television in automotive media advertising.  And it's looking more and more like the Internet could be the big winner in 2009.  So what's the problem?

Some of radio's CEOs have submitted that it's all about perception.  While many would take exception to that claim, in this case, they may be right.  As the Prosper model shows, "the amount of radio consumed, its influence to purchase, combined with lower costs makes it a stronger media option, which according to consumers is under-utilized."  

Sadly, radio is making a lot of negative headlines these days.  Ongoing layoffs, the firing of popular personalities, and other events continue to put the medium in a bad light.  And yet, the intrinsic value of radio - which was always overlooked even in good times - remains as an incredibly effective way to sell just about anything.

Even Impalas. 

The Cell Phone Only Ceiling Has Broken

It's difficult to find a lot of happy Arbitron stories these days, but today's announcement that "cell phone only" measurement is going to become standard operating procedure in the diary system starting with the Fall 2009 survey period is great news for everyone involved in under-34 formats.

This has been a major Jacobs Media initiative since our first Tech Poll in '05 shined the spotlight on this problem.  Thanks to the efforts of many broadcasters, Arbitron got the message that CPO is an issue that needed to be addressed.

As we reported in this space after last month's Consultant Fly-In, the CPO challenge will now be handled by Arbitron, thanks to an innovative solution from their Dr. Ed Cohen who has long been cognizant of problems with youth and diarykeeping.  The new system has obviously passed muster in their research filtering process.  This bodes well for youth formats that have been plagued by having some of their best listeners passed over in the diary process.

If you're running an Alternative station, just conduct a set of Listener Advisory Board groups recruited from your database.  And ask your respondents how many don't have a landline.  It's mind-boggling, and a reminder about how difficult a challenge this has become.

So the next time you hear someone in the next cubicle or on a conference call whining about Arbitron, remind them about this "Cell Phone Only" victory.  Arbitron has successfully addressed a key issue - without the benefit of MRC pressure or an FCC or Justice Department investigation.

Whaddya know?

Arbitron & The MRC

At the recent Arbitron Radio Advisory Council meetings in one of my favorite places on earth, Jackson Hole, Wyoming, the RAC Chair Chuck DuCoty made some tough observations about the diary system.

As we know, many markets will never see PPM, and many others won't be metered for several years.  As DuCoty noted, diary sample issues are "past the point of being critical."

Arbitron is testing new cell phone-only strategies, and is launching other initiatives to get more young people into the sample frame.  DuCoty credits Arbitron's moves as "the most aggressive I have ever seen."

Which leads me to my question:

Could the diary system as it exists today be accredited by the MRC?

While the industry needs to work with Arbitron to ensure that PPM is the best possible system it can be, markets that are struggling with the diary - and will be measured that way for the foreseeable future - might be asking this same question.

The End Of The (Land)Line II

In a story with resonance to those of us in radio, Nielsen has announced that it is dumping its phone-based sample for its paper diary samples, and is transitioning to a system that uses addresses instead.

Why?  Because of the swift decline of TV homes provided by the landline telephone sample frame.  Nielsen indicates that it only covers about 75% of households in their diary markets.  They also report that this problem is especially prevalent in homes where the family head is 35 or younger.

We've seen this data before - every year in the Jacobs Media Technology Poll.  First, Gallup, now Nielsen.  And of course with PPM.  As we predicted several years ago when this problem first came to light, the "Cellphone Only" dilemma impacts every researcher and marketer who conducts telephone interviews and promotions - from callout to perceptual studies to telemarketing.

Managers should definitely be asking this question the next time they commission new research or buy an audience promotion that utilizes the telephone.

"Online Is The New Primetime"

Today's posting title is a quote from Gian Fulgoni, chairman of comScore, and it cleverly sums up how the Internet now exceeds television during the daytime hours.  In fact, a recent New York Times article actually asked the question, "What is primetime?"  That's because 6,000,000 May sweeps viewers have disappeared since last year.

The culprit?  The Control-Variety-Choice architecture of TiVos/DVRs and the Internet, especially due to the growth of network television sites that offer shows like The Office and Lost whenever you want to see it.

We saw this in our Tech Poll IV in a new question that revealed that four of every ten Rockers now have a TiVo or DVR.  The implications of this are obvious if you're in the TV business.  But what if you're in radio?

At what point will "morning drive" not hold its traditional lead over all other dayparts (aside from PPM)?  When will radio have a podcasting model that makes it convenient for fans of morning shows to be able to easily time-shift their listening?  (And keep in mind that if a PPM respondent listens to a podcast within 7 days of its original airdate, it "counts" in the ratings.)

You may have heard about Hulu, and now radio has some of the same time-shifting potential.  As we noted, NPR understands the model only too well.  They average 12 million downloads a month and that's more than 200 million total downloads since they started their podcast program in August 2005.  And of course, that doesn't cover other public broadcasting networks and producers, or the many local public stations that provide podcasts of their content.  The graphic below shows the most downloaded podcasts on iTunes.  Look how public radio dominates:

And the sponsorship dollars keep rolling in.  Another finding from the Tech Poll is that two-thirds of those who have downloaded a podcast are very or somewhat willing to sit through a commercial as the price of admission.

Maybe instead of calling it time-shifting, we ought to start thinking of it as "dollar-shifting."

End Of The (Land)Line

When the Cell Phone Only controversy took shape a few years ago when our first Tech Poll was released in '05, Arbitron's Ed Cohen told me that the nation's landline statistics were tracked by the National Center for Health Statistics.  I've never figured out why they're the ones that research this data, but nonetheless, their stats are out for the second half of 2007 - and the numbers continue to show a definite trend.

We talk about the wave that powers the meteoric growth of Google, iPods, and YouTube, but the quiet statistic that has impact for all of us is the steady rise of Cell Phone Only households in the U.S.  This new data tells us that about 1 in 6 homes in the U.S. only have a wireless phone.

And of course, the phenomenon is even more pronounced among 25-29 year-olds - more than one-third are now CPO.

Our new Tech Poll data shows even higher CPO numbers - clearly Rock radio listeners (specifically Alternative Radio fans) are especially likely to be CPO, and therefore, not in the Arbitron diary process.  Researchers have argued about the effect of their exclusion from studies - ratings and otherwise.  But when large segments of the population are not a part of research surveys, there's something wrong with the process.

Gallup came to this realization last year, and you have to wonder when radio researchers won't have to reach that same conclusion moving forward.  As the NHIS notes, "The potential for bias due to undercoverage remains a real and growing threat to surveys conducted only on landline telephones."  Technology changes everything.  And market research is no exception.

Just like with iPods, this is a problem that is only going to get worse over time.

Gallup & Cell Phone Onlies

A funny thing happened while I was reading the latest USA Today/Gallup poll.  Just like always, Gallup interviewed a representative poll of about 2,000 adults in order to determine American attitudes about the candidates and the country.

But in a small box, Gallup explained that for the first time, they are now integrating "Cell Phone Onlies" into their national samples.  In fact, for every 1,000 interviews, there are now 130 CPOs in the sample.

On the one hand, Gallup notes that the effect of excluding those without landlines from research studies is negligible.  Yet, after reviewing their procedures, they feel the need to include CPOs in their research.  (By the way, once they find a CPO, they ask "For your safety, are you currently driving?"  If the answer is "yes," the interviewer finds a better time to make a callback.)

Since we raised the question about the Cell Phone Only dilemma after our first Tech Poll in '05, this situation has become a research issue.  This is a growing population group, and they need to be represented in important research projects.  In this blog, we have urged research companies - beyond Arbitron - to start including CPOs in their studies.  Of course, this includes radio research companies - the ones who help us determine audience needs and tastes.

Now Gallup has stepped up to the plate.  Who's next?