"Did you hear what Howard said this morning?"

eWhen was the last time you heard someone say THAT?  Probably about a year ago, when Howard was still broadcasting his show on FM radio.  Despite being able to say the "7 dirty words" whenever he wants, no one is talking about the show anymore.

And despite all the Sirius advertising that is bombarding us in the fourth quarter of 2006, our Technology Web Poll back in February accurately foretold the reality:  the vast majority of Stern fans made the switch around the time Howard did.  Relatively few consumers are going to simply buy the marketing and purchase Sirius late this year because of Howard.

The fact is that as good as Howard is, environment plays a role in his success.  And with Sirius, his landscape has changed.  He isn't attached to a real radio outlet, his reach has been greatly diminished, and with it, his influence.  While he's making a lot more money now than he made in terrestrial radio, the fact is that it was a better environment for him.  More people could hear him in concentrated areas, and therefore, generated the buzz for the show.  The friction between Stern and the FCC, played out every morning on the radio, was great drama.  Now that's gone, too.

This chart shows how Howard's "search" volume on Google has changed over the years (the letters indicate certain levels of activity, tied to events such as "C" - his announced move to satellite radio).  You'll note that the only "event" in 2006 (F) occurred back in February when a story broke about how Stern is attracting ad dollars to Sirius.  Beyond that, 2006 is a very flat to down year for Stern, with none of those telltale "peaks" back in the old, terrestrial radio days.

We used to see the impact of environment on Stern from radio station to radio station, and market to market.  When he was on a great station with a real format, he tended to have blockbuster numbers.  When he was on a dog station that played music that was much-duplicated in the market, or just not very good, his ratings seriously lagged.  Despite the fact that it was the same show all over the U.S., the Arbitron numbers were far different, depending on the situation.  You can look it up.

This isn't just true in radio.  Right now in sports, we're seeing this play out in the NBA as former Detroit Piston Ben Wallace took a few million dollars more, and took his 'fro to Chicago to play for the Bulls.  But one month into the season, nothing's working, despite the fact that Ben is the same player, the baskets are still 10 feet off the floor, and quarters remain 12 minutes long.  In a different environment with new team chemistry, and stricter rules and regulations, Wallace's play, his image, and his impact is suffering.  He's gone from a team leader to a guy who Chicagoans are already questioning.

Sometimes, athletes - and DJs - don't realize the difference that a new environment can make - good or bad.  In market after market, we see jocks get greedy, leave a great station and killer situation for something less wonderful.  And most of the time, their results pale in comparison.  And conversely, we see personalities move to a great station and finally thrive - after years of mediocrity.  That combination of player, coach, and team can make all the difference in the world.
Isn't that the storyline for Opie & Anthony who did their shows in essential anonymity until they were rescued by terrestrial radio in 2006?  While they have not achieved Howard-esque numbers yet, their profile is considerably higher.  To substantiate that claim, look at searches for these guys on Google over the last three years:

They got a nice "hit" when they returned to the airwaves in August '04 (B), but once on XM, searches were stronger than when they were in exile - but not by much.  Note only one "moment" in '05 (C - a fan disrupting a live broadcast).  But in 2006, their return to terrestrial radio (D) created a search explosion, followed by more news of their comeback.  Note how much stronger their search activity has become since returning to the better environment that is FM radio.

Environment matters.  It's never just about the dough.  It's about working with a great staff, in a great market, for a great company, with a great franchise.  The great ones eventually figure it out.

Comments

[David Martin]

Bravo Fred! Environment or "place" is always important but often overlooked. Getting found is one of the biggest issues on the horizon. May I suggest a reading of Peter Morville's excellent writing on the subject Ambient Findability. My sense is the potential of pay radio might be akin to the potential of premium pay television. The best paid media team in the game is, arguably, HBO. After more than two decades of very good marketing, aggressive, smart promotion and strong original product they have reached a pay base of approx 28 million subs. Let's assume that to be the upper reach of pay radio's sub potential. Should that be the case pay radio will turn out to be a small, modest slice of the mediascape, certainly not a threat to the first tribe of wireless. PPM will help us to tell our story better, help folks to understand the incredible powers of reach and ubiquity.

[Dick Hungate]

One of your best blogs...ever.
Somebody should have explained
this concept to self-managed, greedy
MLB player Gary Sheffield (to name just
one of hundreds more examples) long ago.
Chipper Jones is the smart one...sticking
with perhaps the best "players' manager"
in the business, Bobby Cox, instead of
doing that trite and typical career-tour-
of-the-majors routine and never seeming
happy/satisfied/self-actualized. Similarly,
we don't see Andruw Jones itchy to exit the
happy & supportive Braves organization, either.
When you're supported, appreciated and given
the proper platform for a career to flourish...
you should STAY and grow deep roots. Everything
turns out better!

[Tom Webster]

Fantastic post, Fred--I had been thinking about how off Howard's show has drifted from what it once was, and you post inspired me to jot that down on our blog: http://www.infinitedial.com/2006/12/listened_to_howard_lately.php. You are absolutely right--it IS all about the environment, which is another way of saying that context is as important as content. Nice one!

-T

[Dave Paulus]

Not to "jump on the bandwagon" Fred....but truly one of the best posts EVER on this blog.

Great reading and thought provoking. Just shared it with my staff!

[brian]

fm radio is dead, thanks to the fcc, media conglomerates, commercial overload, lack of choice, and consultants. opie and who, why don't you check lycos and other search engines where howard is still the king of all media. howard will be on letterman and conan next week. the stern effect is real. cbs radio is still tanking since howard's departure. they had to sell off a shitload of radio stations because of howard's effect. fm radio will never again see the impact that howard brought to the table.

[Joe]

Where do the numbers stack up for Howard vs. Opie and Anthony?

Are they similar demographics?

I bring it up because if you listen to both shows Opie and Anthony are much more Internet driven then Stern's show is. Howard does mention his website (and it seems a lot more since the stories about him being searched for broke a few months ago) but Opie and Anthony seem like they have always been bigger on the 'net.

I like everything you've said, but when it comes to Howard I feel like his show is actually a lot better on Sirius then it was on the dial. Swearing aside think about what he has done with his staff and the two channels he is programming. There are some really good things happening on those channels, plus, HowardTV isn't half bad either.

Good stuff!!

Enviornment matters. I'll have to keep that in mind.

Take care.